March 18, 2015

Can You Have Too Much Confidence?

Here's an interesting article by Ben Lacombe of Expert Table Tennis, though this article is from his non-table tennis blog. The article is about confidence and how it affects success, and features Kanye West as an example. Now I'm no music expert and am not an expert on West, but from what little I do know from various news articles, I have to agree with President Obama about him. However, he is right in some of the things he says about attaining success, as the article explains. The article finishes with the following four ways people think about success:

  1. The unrealistic pessimist believes they will fail even if they put in the effort, planning, persistence and strategy required to succeed.
  2. The realistic pessimist believes they will fail because they won’t put in the effort, planning, persistence or strategy required to succeed.
  3. The unrealistic optimist believes they will succeed without having to put in the effort planning, persistence and strategy required to succeed.
  4. The realistic optimist believes they will succeed provided they put in the effort, planning, persistence and strategy required to succeed.

I would hope that everyone would attempt to be in #4; I know that I try to live by it. A key thing is to be realistic in what you strive for. For example, all the effort, planning, persistence, and strategy isn't going to make me an NBA basketball star. (I'm 5'10" and 55 years old, with a vertical jump that can only be detected by an electron microscope. As Clint says, A man's got to know his limitations.) It's also not going to make me U.S. Men's Singles Champion. But then we get into gray areas.

Could I be U.S. Over 50 or (in five years) Over 60 Champion? If I were to put in the effort, planning, persistence, and strategy, it's probably not going to help if a healthy Cheng Yinghua shows up (or a few others like David Zhuang who generally don't play in these senior events). But the one who tends to dominate these events is Dan Seemiller, who at 60 is five years older than me - and between us, we've won five U.S. Men's Singles Championships! (Hint - he's won five. We're not talking hardbat here.) If I were to go into serious training (i.e. put in the effort, planning, persistence, and strategy), and were able to avoid injury, I could perhaps get back to 2300 level or so. (Avoiding injury is key - if I train like I used to, then I'm going to get injured, period.)

Now Dan's current rating is 2464, and in recent years he mostly bounces around between 2450 and 2500.  (He's played nine tournaments in the past year, with his rating ranging from 2448 to 2509.) And guess what? That puts him in range of a 2300 player. (I'm talking levels, not ratings, with the rating just a shorthand for a player's playing level.) The USATT rating chart gives rough odds for upsets based on ratings, and according to that, the odds of a 2300 player beating a 2450 player are about 15-1. (And I've beaten over a dozen players rated over 2450 in tournaments.) And it also so happens that, style-wise, I'm very good against the Seemiller grip that Dan Seemiller pioneered, including wins over brothers Ricky (when past his prime) and Randy. So yeah, I could beat Dan Seemiller. (Somewhere out there, Dan is laughing at me while simultaneously admiring my "realistic" optimism.)

There's another factor as well. In striving to beat Dan Seemiller and others, even if I don't achieve that goal I'd likely maximize my playing level. So even if you "fail" at something like this, you succeed. If you train like crazy and greatly improve your playing level, and then lose a close Over 50 final to Dan Seemiller, you've both lost and won - you've won because you've reached a much higher level of play, and there's always next year, as well as other titles and tournaments. Failing to achieve a lofty goal does not mean you have failed. You've only lost one battle in what should be a long playing career, with a future that's suddenly a lot brighter than it was before because of your higher playing level. 

But there's another factor - picking your goals. Should I spend huge amounts of effort for the very small chance of my beating Dan Seemiller and others and becoming U.S. Over 50 or 60 Champion? Naaah, I've got better, more realistic goals that at this point. They include writing books and articles (both table tennis and science fiction & fantasy), coaching, and developing the sport in my various USATT and MDTTC roles. And yet, I sometimes consider adding some table tennis playing goals.

Until recently, I still had aspirations to win various national hardbat titles - I've won hardbat singles at the Nationals or Open twice, Over 40 four times, and hardbat doubles 13 times. I could still realistically win one of these titles again, but is it really worth training hard to get one more of these titles, when I could spend that same time on other goals? It's not easy getting in shape for these titles, and in recent times my playing level has taken a dive. (It's still tempting to play, since I tend to be a dominant hardbat doubles player, and it's always possible that I could catch fire again and win another over 40 title.)

Actually, when I consider training as a player again, I'm more often contemplating whether I could get back in shape enough to compete with the top juniors/youth at my club (MDTTC), the ones I used to beat up on when they were little kids - Nathan Hsu, Derek Nie, Roy Ke, Klaus Wood, Crystal Wang, etc. I'll always have a huge winning record against them from years of playing them while they were coming up, but it'd be nice to get a few more wins over them. (I've been warning Crystal Wang that I'm going to beat her one more time, and she just nods and smiles and sits on her 2507 rating.)

For now, however, I'll focus on my other activities. In writing, I've got more books on table tennis to come, including at some point a rewrite of my Table Tennis: Steps to Success book (probably retitled "Table Tennis Fundamentals"), plus the usual Tips of the Week (which every three years becomes a Table Tennis Tips book). I'm still writing science fiction & fantasy, and as noted on Monday, am currently working on a new fantasy novella that features table tennis. Plus, of course, as a member of the USATT Board (for about two months), the chair of the USATT League Committee (for about two weeks now), and as a promoter for MDTTC and the Capital Area Super League, I'll be pretty busy promoting the sport.

Now if I were a junior, or coaching a junior (which I do), then things are a bit different, as their playing ceiling is a bit less limited. They can, and should, aspire to beat the best players, and by doing so, they very well may do so - or, by striving for lofty goals, they will at least become as good as they could be. And older players can also have high goals. While it's not likely that someone starting at a late age is going to be U.S. men's or women's singles champion, there are cases where they reach very high levels.

So what are your realistic optimist goals? Do you have ones for table tennis or some other subject? Or are you one of those poor souls in categories 1-3?

Ask the Coach

  • Episode #96 (13:50) - Tactics When Losing the Short Game (and other segments)
  • Episode #97 (19:01) - Modified Serving Grip (and other segments)
  • Episode #98 (25:04) - Doubles Footwork (and other segments)

2015 Recipients of the Direct Athlete Support

Here's the USATT article. Those receiving financial support for their training are Lily Zhang, Kanak Jha, Crystal Wang, Jack Wang, Amy Wang, Timothy Wang, and Tahl Leibovitz.

2015 NCTTA Regional Championships

Here are articles on regional collegiate championships by Kagin Lee. (I linked to the last two last Wednesday.)

Asian Cup Women's Singles Final

Yesterday (where I linked to the Men's Final between Xu Xin and Fan Zhendong) I wrote that the final hadn't yet been posted, and as far as I can see after much searching, it still isn't online everywhere, though you can easily find the semifinals and many other matches on Youtube.com if you search for "2015 Asian Cup table tennis." Spoiler alert - in the final, Feng Tianwei of Singapore (world #5, ranked #2 for seven months back in 2010-2011) upset Liu Shiwen of China (world #3, world #1 for much of 2013-2014 and #2 for five months until just this month). Here's the Tabletennista article I linked to yesterday on it.

World's Best Arrive in Bremen for German Open

Here's the ITTF press release.

11 Questions with Roman Tinyszin

Here's the USATT interview with the USA International Referee and chair for the past six years of the USATT Rules and Officials Committee.  

Zhang Jike - The Path I Have Chosen

Here's the new video (6:43) on the Chinese superstar. "Get a rare insight into the mind of the World and Olympic Table Tennis Champion Zhang Jike!"

Waldner Highlights Video

Here's a new highlights video (4:01) on Waldner. It's from France, but the language doesn't matter here.

Rising Egyptian Star Omar Assar

Here's video (21 sec) of him topspinning off-the-bounce while doing footwork.

Portuguese Music Video

Here's the new video (2:23), "2ª Etapa da Liga Paulista de Tênis de Mesa - 2015," which Google Translate translates as "2nd Stage of the Paulista League Table Tennis - 2015.

Liverpool Football Club Show Some Serious Table Tennis Skills

Here's the article and video (2:05) which includes play-by-play coverage. (That's soccer for us Americans!)

Cane Pong?

Here's the video (16 sec) as David Wethrill demonstrates a proper cane forehand.

Chip 'n Dale Pong

Here's the picture, but that ball might be a bit lopsided!

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