November 16, 2015

Tip of the Week
Loose Grip Leads to Better Shots.

Is There a Mathematical Advantage to Serving First?
I keep reading online postings about whether a player should serve first or not. Many of them insist you have a better mathematical chance of winning by serving first. That's simply not true. Here's a simple way of looking at it.

A game to 11 is really just a best of 20, where you just happen to stop once a player clinches it by scoring 11 points. If it goes to 10-all, you alternate serves so both players serve just as often, so there's no mathematical advantage to serving first or second there. So we'll assume that the game doesn't go deuce. Is there a mathematical advantage to serving first or second? Ignoring deuce games, no matter what the final score is, one player scored 11 points in this hypothetical best of 20, and so even if both players had an even number of serves (i.e. ten each), he'd win 11-9 or better.

Some would argue that if a player gets to serve first, he'd get to serve more often, which is technically correct in many cases. But it doesn't matter since even if they played it out so both players got to serve an equal number of times (i.e. ten times each), a player who scored 11 first while serving first is still going to win 11 points, even if he allows his opponent the same number of serves. By serving first, all you can do is make it closer if you lose, or more lopsided if you win.

Let's look at specific examples. Suppose for example that you served first and won 11-8, and served ten times while the other player only served nine. It makes no difference because even if you gave that player the extra serve and he scored, you'd still win 11-9. If you won 11-7 and served ten times to the opponent's eight, again the best your opponent could have done, given the extra two serves, is win both those points, but you'd still win 11-9.

Now let's suppose you gave away the serve. If you win even though you might serve up to two less times, you win. If you lose, that means your opponent got to 11 first, and even if he got to serve two more times than you did, you are in the same situation explained above: the best you can do is make it closer, but you'd still lose because the opponent will have scored at least 11 points, so again, even if you get the two missing serves, he'll still outscore you 11-9 or better.

There are some advantages to serving first or second. In a round robin match, if there's a tie between players, it first goes to matches, then games, and then points. If it goes to points, which rarely happens, then there is a tiny advantage in serving first as that means that you may have one or two extra serves more than the opponent in the entire match, and so might on average have a slightly better scoring percentage. However, this is unlikely that it is overpowered by other considerations.

There's a simple reason I recommend players give the serve away. It is at the start of a match that players are least warmed up or adjusted to the opponent. So you are more likely to make mistakes at the very start – and these are more costly on your own serve than on the opponent's, since the server is supposed to win the majority of the points. Plus if you serve second, then you will be serving at the end of the first, third, and fifth games, and it's under pressure like that when serving is most important. More players "choke" when receiving then serving as there's more uncertainty in returning a serve (especially near the end of a close game or match when there's both pressure and your opponent now knows what serves give you trouble) than serving, where you know exactly what your first "shot" will be – your serve. Players pop up or miss serves a lot more than servers pop up or miss their own serve, plus there's more confidence in dealing with an opponent's return of your serve than dealing with the uncertainty of his serve.

Some players do play better with a lead, and for them it might be better to serve first. For example, some players like to go for winners, and have more confidence in doing so when they have a lead. Others play better when their back is to the wall, i.e. playing from behind, and for them, it's best to serve second. Either way, this is psychological reasons to serve first or second, not mathematical ones.

You do have one other option at the start of the match – which side to start on. There is some advantages to using this. For example, I find I have trouble getting into a match if the background is poor, and in matches like that I take the side with the better background at the start. By the time I'm into the second game with the worse background I'm into the match and so it's not as important. (If you are in a large arena and on a side table where you are looking into the open expanse, it's harder to pick up the ball then if you are looking into a wall. Of course, if the wall is similar in color to the ball, that changes things.) I often try to choose which side I want to start on by simply going to that side in the warm-up, knowing that few opponents take advantage of choosing a side. And since most players like to serve first, I usually get the best of both worlds – I get to receive first and start on the side I want to start on!

There's another advantage to choosing a side. If the match is close, you might be playing more points on the side you don't start on. On average you'll play the same number of points on both sides in the first four (or six) games, but in the final game two things come into consideration. First, you change sides when a player reaches five. Let's suppose you change sides at 5-4. At ten-all, you would have played eleven of the twenty points on the "good" side – and then you'll play all of them on the good side in deuce. (If it's more lopsided at the start, then you'll potentially play even more points on the good side.) In the proverbial best of 20 explained above, in the final game you'll almost always get to play more points on the good side by starting on the bad side, both before and at deuce. So there's an advantage to choosing to start on the "bad" side!

In the end, who serves first or which side you start on are rather small variables in who wins the match – there's a lot of things that are more important. But why not take whatever advantage you can?

The Writing Retreat
This is a table tennis blog, so I won't spend too much time on this. As noted in my blog last Monday, I spent the week at a writing retreat at The Writer's Center in Bethesda, MD. My new SF novel, "Campaign 2100: Game of Scorpions," comes out in late January, and so I started the sequel, "Campaign 2110: Scorpions in Space." Both novels feature table tennis as one of the four main characters is a championship table tennis player, and I keep working that into the plot.

The first one was 123,000 words, a little longer than I'd planned. I'll try to keep the sequel to 90,000-100,000 words. I did a little over 17,000 words during the five days, as well as plan out a lot of it. (I'd originally hoped to get more done, but it's a complicated work requiring a lot of planning and research.) I'll continue to plug away at it, and hopefully finish it next year. ("Finish" doesn't just mean finish writing the draft; all first drafts requiring a lot of rewriting.)

I'm having a lot of fun with one new alien character, Thirteen, a spaced-out, haughty, philosophical economist from Grodan (which orbits Tau Ceti) who develops her economic and political theories while humming and staring into the many mirrors in her home, while occasionally calling out nonsensical words of wisdom. She has 60,000 volunteers working in her basement.

Call for Coach of the Year Nominations
Here's the info article.

Help Wanted: Coach for Alameda Table Tennis Center
Here's the info.

The Serving Test
Here's the test of your short spin serves.

Ask the Coach Show

  • Episode #183 (24:23) – Getting a Grip (and other topics)
  • Episode #184 (15:10) - Friday Funnies or Black Friday? (and other topics)
  • Episode #185 (25:05) – Aggressive Mindset (and other topics)

Podcast with Daniel Reed
Here's the new podcast (52:53) from Expert Table Tennis with Reed, who is currently ranked #5 in England and #217 in the world. Here are a few of the questions Daniel answered during the interview:

  • How Danny first started table tennis at Ormesby TTC in Middlesbrough.
  • Why his coach Carole Moore was so influential in his rapid development.
  • How much training Danny was doing as an 11-12 year old.
  • All about his drive and determination to succeed even as a young boy.
  • Why he decided to study for a degree alongside his table tennis.
  • What he is currently working on (physically, technically, tactically and mentally).
  • How tough it is to make a living playing professional table tennis.
  • Danny’s plans for the next few years.
  • Why Danny believes players must put themselves under pressure in practice (Top Tip).
  • How to get in contact with Danny.

Swedish Open
The event was held Nov. 11-15 in Stockholm. Here's the ITTF page for the event where you can get results, articles, pictures, and video.

Early Success Brings Continued Growth for Americas First Full Time Training Center
Here's the article about my club, Maryland Table Tennis Center, by Barbara Wei. One small thing – technically the club at least broke even the first five years, excluding start-up costs, other than a serious financial situation it ran into I think in the second year, when a record snowfall basically closed us down for weeks. But the only reason the club did okay financially in its early years is that I didn't take a penny for all my work there – nothing, not for coaching, running tournaments, or running the place, as I did much of the first ten years.

Capital Area League
The Capital Area League had another meet on Saturday, Nov. 7, from 5-10PM, with all twelve teams (with 73 players on their rosters) playing at least two team matches. (There were a few additional make-up matches.) Here are the results. Here are detailed results for Division 1 and Division 2. (These and previous results are linked from the results page.) I'm the webmaster and a member of the organizing committee for the Capital Area League.

RIP Vincent Purkart
He was a great French player (two-time French National Men's Singles Champion and five-times runner-up, mostly to Secretin), but was best known as part of the greatest exhibition team ever, the Secretin-Purkart show. From my April 28, 2015 blog:

Here's the full video (93 min) of the greatest exhibition team of all time. Warning - once you start watching, it's addictive! But it's great stuff, with the great Jacques Secretin (17-time French National Men's Singles Champion, 1977 World Mixed Doubles Champion, and former world #4) against the clownish Vincent Purkart (two-time French National Men's Singles Champion and five-times runner-up, mostly to Secretin). They spent many years touring the world doing their famous comedy exhibition. Sean O'Neill messaged me that the umpire who they constantly fight with is Claude Bergeret, 1977 World Mixed Doubles Champion with Secretin. (I'd been told it was Purkart's wife, but that might have been incorrect.) Here's a recent picture of Secretin and Purkart - they're still at it!!!

Addendum: Here's the ITTF obit on Purkart, which I'll also link to tomorrow. 

USATT Rules Update
Here's the update.

Nominees for 2015 Male & Female Table Stars Announced
Here's the ITTF article.

11 Questions with Kevin Korb
Here's the USATT interview with the 19-year-old owner of The Topspin Club. (He was interviewed in a podcast in September at Expert Table Tennis.)

Two Generations Meet
Here's the picture of Japan's 12-year-old whiz kid Tomokazu Harimoto (already ranked #262 in the world, higher than the #1 U.S. man) and Swedish legend (generally considered the GOAT) Jan-Ove Waldner at the Swedish Open. (Here's the non-Facebook version.)

Pingpong Club Appeals to a Diverse Crowd
Here's the article from the New Orleans Advocate.

Andrey Borovik's Para Story
Here's the article.

How to Rip a Forehand
Here's video (34 sec, including slow motion replay) as Anton Kallberg (SWE) shows us the basic forehand put-away against Liam Pitchford (ENG).

Ask a Pro Anything: Kasumi Ishikawa
Here's the video (5:52) with Ishikawa and Adam Bobrow. And here's the hilarious movie trailer video (61 sec) of the two!

ITTF Pongcast – October
Here's the video (12:40).

Xavier University Confucius Institute Cup Finals Video
Here's the video (6:17) between Jimmy Butler and Peter Nguyen, along with another video showing one of the best and craziest points you'll ever see.

Soccer Star Dave Beckham Playing Soccer and Table Tennis with Kids in Nepal
Here's the video (48 sec) – wait'll you see the table they play on!

Ping Pong Player Eats His Paddle
Here's the article! Ironically, in the science fiction novel I'm currently writing one of the characters said to a candidate running for office, "If you win, I'll eat my ping-pong paddle." (Spoiler Alert: He will. But the election in question wasn't the main election in the novel, so it's not really a spoiler.)

Top 10 Annoying Situations Every Table Tennis Player Has Encountered!
Here's the article with lots of pictures and video.

The Most Painful Game This Decade
Here's the video (26 sec) of what is titled, "Officially the most painful game of table tennis that will take place this decade."

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